Description

This analysis provides a forecast of AR prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2024-10-06 12.559428 14.677178 16.997360 19.721882 22.827151 26.249526 30.300175
2024-10-13 9.046729 11.856288 15.248234 19.616436 25.061200 31.590173 39.974215
2024-10-20 6.869497 9.953153 14.001638 19.638520 27.204719 36.919889 50.232249
2024-10-27 5.424663 8.591597 13.066534 19.730062 29.252046 42.193728 60.895683
2024-11-03 4.761210 8.136267 13.210693 21.200902 33.219185 50.321161 76.106286
2024-11-10 4.138312 7.588587 13.080623 22.177532 36.502666 57.732116 90.951847
2024-11-17 3.601563 7.056165 12.854592 22.916066 39.433529 64.821055 105.882858
2024-11-24 2.998312 6.278837 12.084157 22.629914 40.659199 69.363118 117.281905
2024-12-01 2.431165 5.444802 11.067210 21.753405 40.761211 72.071210 125.953106
2024-12-08 1.999106 4.777919 10.231760 21.052014 41.027409 74.989938 135.099095
2024-12-15 1.740081 4.410342 9.894406 21.196160 42.752466 80.427163 148.743027
2024-12-22 1.475421 3.972585 9.344293 20.848118 43.518896 84.242223 159.876871
2024-12-29 1.363678 3.874301 9.499937 21.958474 47.215319 93.665316 181.720836
2025-01-05 1.197955 3.610980 9.264567 22.248170 49.381850 100.553777 199.692132
2025-01-12 1.048267 3.353027 8.997837 22.433522 51.358250 107.254591 217.840755
2025-01-19 0.918958 3.117289 8.740900 22.599915 53.302709 114.037547 236.621633
2025-01-26 0.887509 3.150624 9.136627 24.284755 58.578101 127.617918 269.064681
2025-02-02 0.828020 3.086974 9.279349 25.396892 62.728572 139.284826 298.605083
2025-02-09 0.761508 2.985173 9.306513 26.233969 66.351418 150.150056 327.277557
2025-02-16 0.656740 2.731260 8.884420 25.912989 67.349482 155.747281 345.938782
2025-02-23 0.544387 2.416994 8.235751 24.924891 66.707006 157.877290 357.776460
2025-03-02 0.455822 2.158536 7.695138 24.133536 66.426498 160.719870 371.208841
2025-03-09 0.405992 2.030869 7.520351 24.296344 68.446148 168.643384 395.631914